An Interview with Paul Saffo

Gemperlein :   That's important for progress?
Saffo :   This is what success looks like in Silicon Valley. An "S" curve. Time and a measure of success, either millions of dollars or units sold. And almost every technology that's successful follows that shape. The problem is, as familiar as we are with the "S"curve, everybody always forgets some details.

First of all, that first part of the "S" is a long period of time where nothing happens. In fact, in Silicon Valley as a general rule, most ideas take 20 years to become an overnight success. The Internet started around 1970. Did not take off until almost exactly 20 years later, 1988, 89, 90. So that this period where nothing happens is the period littered with the corpses of brilliant failures.

Fox was a failure for its shareholders, but it taught the industry a lot about interactive TV. The Newton device, the Siemens? The Newton device was another very interesting failure. There are other things around here. The phone over there was an interesting success in its days, one of the most elegant analog phones you'll ever see. It was called the Cobra. This is how you hang up. (By putting it down on its base)

Gemperlein :   Can you talk about Wildfire ?
Saffo :   She's a 386 in a box. It's from a small company in Massachusetts. It was actually started by a guy by the name of Bill Warner. Actually, I saw an early demo years before the product came out. It was actually of interest to me because on the surface Wildfire looks like, you know, it's a a tour de force of voice recognition.

In fact, in Silicon Valley as a general rule, most ideas take 20 years to become an overnight success.

It's as good a voice recognition system as you'll find. But it turns out that even world-class voice recognition these days is not quite good enough. I mean, you heard Wildfire make a couple of mistakes when I was talking.

The brilliance of Wildfire is actually exquisite user interface design. They designed it to fail elegantly. Like what it didn't recognize, it knows it won't always get it right. So it said, "8 hours, is that correct? I said, no. The genius of Wildfire is that they learned how to tame the best of today's technology and turn it into a useful product despite the limitations of technology.

Gemperlein :   Is Wildfire the type of thing Shally will use routinely in a couple of decades? Do you foresee that we'll all have one?
Saffo :   No. Wildfire is the first in the classic device of integrated computer telephony. You already do that today anytime you call AT&T, you'll hit a very simple yes/no voice recognition. And you'll see more Wildfire system-like systems.

The closest analogy is voice mail. Once upon a time, voice mail was a big novelty. Like maybe even recently, 7 years ago? The companies were going, Ehh, that's a little too top-floor for us to get our employees. It's too fancy. These days, if you don't have voicemail, well....


Things go from exotic out to ordinary facts of our life at very great speed.

So I think what you'll see is our systems are going to evolve the same way. Right now, Wildfire seems exotic. We don't need that; we have voice mail. Things go from exotic out to ordinary facts of our life at very great speed. And I think you'll see voice augmented telephone messaging systems on lots of different models. Wildfire's just one way of doing it. There are lots of different ways it can be done.

But it's the existing proof that interface design understandings and voice recognition are now good enough. It's really quite crazy that we should go around and remember numbers.

And it's also quite strange that, you know, I could be at home in complete solitude having a quiet dinner with my spouse -- or I'm on a quiet street and I value my privacy -- and a complete and utter stranger from anywhere on the planet can invade my solitude during dinner merely by placing a phone call to my house. And I will pick up the phone and I won't know who it is until I actually say: It's me.

With Wildfire, that's not true anymore. You call me, reach Wildfire. If I even want a call to be put through, Wildfire will try to put you through. The phone on my desk will ring; I'll pick it up, and it will tell me it's you who's calling. And it'll say, do you want to take a message, do you want to take it or shall I take a message? And I'll say: I'll take it. Wildfire . . .is a phone agent. It works 24 hours a day. I don't know of any humans who can do that. And its functions are much more limited than what a human assistant could do. But within a narrow confine, it does things very effectively. It will track me down anywhere I'm on the planet. I can be on a satellite phone on a Boeing 767 somewhere over Greenland and get a call.


Actually, there is no such thing as a normal kid. I think all kids are extraordinary.

My mother fell and broke her hip a year ago, and the people with her reached me in less than 20 minutes despite the fact that all they had was my business card and no one, including my mother, was exactly certain where I was. And they reached me. They reached me in a small village in the mountains of central Japan because I told my Wildfire agent where I was, and it knew how to filter. I'd set it to filter the calls in such a way.

Gemperlein :   What did you read when you were a kid?
Saffo :   Well, the felony file's been completely sealed. I read everything. I was a normal kid. Actually, there is no such thing as a normal kid. I think all kids are extraordinary. I've really watched, watching friends kids grow up, that you see them. They don't just read the Hardy Boys, or Nancy Drew. Do people still read Nancy Drew?

In some ways, science fiction can say things about the future. But it really says more about the age in which it was written, what was on people's minds and what mattered.

I actually collect old Tom Swifts. Because they're wonderful, wonderful things. In some ways, science fiction can say things about the future. But it really says more about the age in which it was written, what was on people's minds and what mattered.

One of my favorite books is Tom Swift and his Photo-Telephone, from 1911. It shows an early video-phone concept. It's real clear. A whole bunch of middle-aged executives at AT&T in 1961 had been raised on reading Tom Swift and his photo-telephone. And were trying to build it. Which, by the way, that's why science fiction today is worthwhile. Because the way invention happens is that kids read it when and develop their ideas when they're teenagers. And they nurse those big ideas along until they reach middle-age in management and they can make those ideas happen.

And if you talk to historians of atomic technology, they will tell you that people like Enrico Fermi and others, the greats of atomic energy, the inventors of atomic energy, a disproportionate number were influenced by H. G. Wells. Because people talked about atomic power in the late 1800s. And they wrote about it.


I was a terrible student in grade school. I almost failed out of grade school. I was a victim of new math.

And the original astronauts and the scientists working on the original Apollo mission were raised on Buck Rogers and space operas as kids.

And today there's a whole generation of cyberpunks raised on William Gibson -- well, now it's old stuff -- who are graduating from college and heading off to engineering jobs.

Shen :   Going back to sci-fi, do you enjoy watching Star Trek and those type of sci-fi?
Saffo :   I hate to admit it. I almost find Star Trek a bit dull. Now mind you I saw, I'm of the age that the original Star Trek came on when I was in high school, and then it was in reruns when I was in college. I think. I now enjoy it more, but I still don't watch it regularly. But I'm hoping to see the new Star Trek films.
Shen :   Were you a good student?
Saffo :   I was a terrible student in grade school. I almost failed out of grade school. I was a victim of new math. I really didn't get calculus down until college. I had to take a remedial course in calculus my freshman year because I got so screwed up in mathematics in grade school. People today don't realize how horrible new math really was. It was this really stupid way of teaching mathematics.

I almost failed out of grade school. I did well in high school and did well in college and did well after that.