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The Road to Universal
Robots
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All
Things, Great and Small - MIPS chart. [Click
for
a larger image.]
Image
courtesy of Hans Moravec, Carnegie Mellon University. |
Research
scientist Hans Moravec sees a 4-stage evolution towards universal
robots, robots with human-level intelligence flexible enough to
do a broad range of tasks. Key to this evolution is a steady increase
in computer power, defined in terms of millions of instructions
per second, or MIPS.
Moravec
describes computer intelligence in terms of animal intelligence.
For example, a typical home computer has 1000 MIPS of power, about
the brain power equivalent of an insect. Among Moravec’s predictions,
outlined below, is that robots will achieve human-level intelligence
(100,000,000 MIPS) in 2040.
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Robot. Image courtesy of Hans Moravec, Carnegie
Mellon University. |
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Year:
2010
Processing
power: 3,000 MIPS
Intelligence
equivalent: Lizard
Robots
will have basic navigation skills and could be used for cleaning
or delivery and take on expanded roles in factories.
Year:
2020
Processing
power: 100,000 MIPS
Intelligence
equivalent: Mouse
Robots
will be able to learn on the job, adapting their own programs to
perform more successfully. Robots will do the same jobs as before,
but more reliably and flexibly.
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"...We
should have–in rather cheap machines– human level
intelligence in well under fifty years." Hans Moravec.
[Click
for
a larger image.]
Image
courtesy of Hans Moravec, Carnegie Mellon University. |
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Year:
2030
Processing
power: 3,000,000 MIPS
Intelligence
equivalent: Monkey
Robots
will demonstrate world modeling: a general understanding of objects
and what they are for, and of living things and how to interact
with them. (For example, a robot will "know" what an egg
is and know that it must be picked up gently.) Simulations will
allow robots to practice and perfect new tasks before attempting
them. Robot servants will be able to "read" the moods
of the people around them.
Year:
2040
Processing
power: 100,000,000 MIPS
Intelligence
equivalent: Human
Robots
will be able to speak and understand speech, think creatively, and
anticipate the results of their actions far in advance. With reasoning
power at or beyond the human level, robots will be generally as
competent as people.
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